There has been a lot of buzz in the news lately about two big topics the new space race and a real estate housing boom. As is often the case our humble little community seems to be inextricably tied to the national news. Recently Space X founder Elon Musk Tweeted “Please consider moving to Starbase or greater Brownsville/South Padre area in Texas & encourage friends to do so! SpaceX’s hiring needs for engineers, technicians, builders & essential support personnel of all kinds are growing rapidly," Naturally when one of the richest people in the world makes a tweet like this to his 52 million followers it will stir up media attention. And it absolutely did. Our region received coverage from multiple national media outlets such as WSJ, Business Insider and many others. And of course this also generated a lot of investor interest in our region the effects of which we are and will be feeling for some time. However, this post is not about Elon's tweet as frankly that's already old news.
I am writing today about the ongoing housing crisis locally and how it's not really just about Space X and it's not a bubble. I have been selling houses in Brownsville for over 11 years now. I watched it go from a relatively affordable market with normal patterns to the crazy seller's market it is today. When I started in 2009 it was just months after the housing bust of 2008. It was a dismal time to say the least. Back in 2009 the market was the complete opposite of what it is today. Back then there was a glut of houses and very few buyers. Credit was greatly restricted by the government and lenders as it was widely believed that the housing bust was caused by loose lending polices, which is mostly accurate. Now we are hearing people sound alarm bells claiming we are in a housing bubble nationally and huge crash is on the horizon. And no I am not talking about a SpaceX launch. However, I contend a crash is not in the near future with respect to our housing market at least.
On a local and national level we are seeing a variety of factors contribute to overall housing market. So I am going to do my best to quickly summarize what is going on to help everyone understand what is happening and why it's not a housing bubble and it's really not just SpaceX coming to Brownsville.
1. The housing market dynamics are completely different from the 2008 crash. The primary reason for the 2008 bubble was excessive and very loose lending practices. Investors were buying multiple houses at an inflated price and using questionable loan packages such as Adjustable Rate Mortgages, Negative Amortization Loans and lenders were lending to people with bad credit and 0 down. Many of these programs have been greatly restricted due to that crash so we have less risky mortgages in the market place.
2. In 2007 when the Adjustable Rate Mortgages that were originated in 2002 started to reset people couldn't afford their payments and due to the high rates and slow down in demand they had very little equity in their homes so they just let them go causing a viscous cycle to continue to spiral down.
3. The difference between today and 2008 is credit has been much more tightly controlled due to the Dodd-Frank Act since then even though some of the loan options have returned. The current homeowners have much more equity in their homes then they did in 2008 so they are less likely to walk away. There is also not a huge risk of Adjustable Rate Mortgages resetting at a higher rate like in 2008 as those are much more restricted than they were before.
4. Another issue that differentiates 2008 from 2021 has to do with Demographics. The home owners of 2008 were Generation X which was born in the 1970s when birth rates were lower. Therefore, when they reached the age to purchase homes there was less demand and this contributed to the market collapse. Currently the people buying homes are the children born in the late 80s and 90s who are reaching average home purchasing age of 28 to 33. During this time there was an increase in child births over the 70s which is setting up the demand we are currently experiencing.
5. In addition to to these differentiating factors you have the continued historically low interest rates, general stability of the economy even in turbulent times and societal factors that make this time different from the prior market conditions.
Although what is happening is new to Brownsville, it is not new to most other areas. As you often hear Brownsville is several years behind the rest of the country. Larger markets all over the country have been experiencing higher home prices for years. Austin Realtors have been reporting multiple bid situations for a long time with some current listings receiving as many as 100 offers. This is not an exaggeration. This has actually happened. Although Brownsville lags the rest of the country it is not immune to factors that effect the rest of the country. With the increased birth rates come new home buyers into the overall market. Economic growth and technology innovation are creating jobs and allowing people to live in places they never would have considered. This is now effecting Brownsville as we take a more prominent role on the national stage and not just for the typical negative reasons we have so often been covered for in the news. As other markets become more expensive and our market remains affordable on a national scale we will become more and more of a desirable option to people looking for reasonable prices, a good quality of life and relative social stability compared to large cities. As Realtors, we see it every day. Our little paradise has been discovered and there is no putting the cat back in the bag.
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| Photo by Carlos Nunez |
So what does this mean for us locals? Well, many of us will benefit from an increase in economic activity. More jobs will be created and higher wages will follow. However, this will also mean higher property taxes as home values increase and homes will become less attainable for people in the lower income brackets. Our community is already doing what they can to try and increase homeownership and reduce barriers to entry but this is an ongoing battle fought from behind. It appears home values will continue to rise in our region as demand increases nationally and locally. If you own a home and want to sell it's a fantastic time to do so, however, just make sure you have a place to go when you sell. That is probably the single most important thing to consider at this time. Most importantly buckle up for the ride because you are living history and for better or worse, you will Be Part of it.
Blog Post by: Craig Grove
Broker/Owner of GRT Realty
Founder of Brownsville Living
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